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Coronavirus cases in India is likely to be at peak by early or mid May

The coronavirus pandemic has bought the never seen situation in India and worldwide and according to the reports the situation might worsen till May end. The study predicts that the cases could reach 30,000 in best case scenario and 2.86 lakh in the worst case scenario and about 30% of the affected people could require intensive care facilities.

The report estimates t which extent the coronavirus is going to affect the country using the aggregated statistical measures computed based on three forecasting models: percentage-based, timeseries and Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR). The model suggests that the coronavirus outbreak could continue across the country till August end. Some states may come out of the crisis till May end or starting of June but the others with larger number of cases can take longer time. All the sources used in the study were verified, central government data, information from government bulletins and daily updates provided by the health ministry.

The study conducted and reports released are supported by scientific evidence and is disseminated to remove uncertainty and throw light on infrastructural gap which lead to social unrest and disruption of several geographies. Researchers analysed top eight states and top three hotspots, along with data from across India, for close to 50 days to project progression of the disease using ‘number of daily new cases’ and total number of active patients count. “The study is an example of how, with the help of data, technology and sophisticated analytical algorithms, we can analyze a ‘black swan’,” says Dhrubabrata Ghosh Dastidar, Director, Data, Digital Transformation, Protiviti India, the study partner.

The reports imply that strict lockdown and containment is required for substantial dealing with the virus. States like Rajasthan, Punjab and Bihar which were the few first states to announce lockdown early have managed to avoid the spike in coronavirus cases whereas, there a worst cases scenario in states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Rajasthan, which was the first state to announce a complete lockdown, has 1,076 infected patients and 221 recoveries; Punjab has 188 infected patients including 27 recoveries and 13 deaths. Over 11,000 people in isolation facilities. Bihar has reported 72 positive cases and 29 recoveries. The state has nearly 12,000 people in isolation and only one death has been reported due to coronavirus. Meanwhile, Maharashtra delayed in announcing lockdown has over 3,000 and 75,000 people in isolation.

The state has also seen the maximum number of deaths in the entire country so far at 187. Uttar Pradesh, which initially ordered a partial lockdown in just 15 districts, has 727 positive cases, 51 recoveries, 11 deaths and 37,223 people in isolation. Gujarat has reported 766 positive cases, 118 recoveries, 33 deaths and 15,147 are in isolation wards or have been quarantined. Delhi added 424 cases and has around 14,000 people quarantined. While Andhra Pradesh has 525 confirmed cases and 58,534 people quarantined and Madhya Pradesh has 938 positive cases and 53 deaths. As many as 9,198 persons are in isolation. According to the researchers India has a very proactive approach towards the pandemic but things will take time to get back to normal.

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