Rising of coronavirus case all over the nation, especially in national’s capital Delhi, Delhi government’s Covid-19 committee has suggested that the lockdown should be continued till Mid-May.
The Delhi government announced a lockdown in Delhi on March 23 followed by a nation-wide lockdown by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, lockdown starts from March 24 till April 14. The lockdown was further extended till May 3 by the government.
Dr S K Sarin, chairman of Delhi committee on Covid-19 said on Saturday that “India is still ascending limb of the epidemic curve and so, to ease the restrictions will mean the cases will multiply uncontrollably. And, Delhi has a large number of containment zones, so it will be wise to extend it.”
“The lockdown will have to be extended till May 16 as that is when the epidemic curve is likely to start declining which happens after the flattering of the curve.” He added.
The total number of coronavirus rises to 2,625, of which 54 death.
How May 16 date was arrived at, Sarin said, Delhi has recorded its first case on March 3 and the mathematical modelling which China suggested is 10 weeks for the epidemic curve to decline.
He further explained what constitutes flattening and decline in the curve, he referred to “reproduction number” of the cases.
He said, the curve is said to flatten when the reproduction number is one, example, 10 people giving the infection to only 10 people, the decline is said to happen if the reproduction number is less than one, means 10 people passing on the infection to less than 10 people, say 8 people and those persons, in turn, passing on to less than eight people.
Sarin said, “But, the flattering of the curve, its decline also needs to be seen over a few weeks to make any assessment.”
In India, the reproduction number of coronavirus cases, it’s ranged it’s from 1.7 to 2.5.
Experts have warned that if lockdown restrictions are eased, then the coronavirus cases could be “flare-up like wildfire”.
As per the data which has been shared by the Delhi Health Department, the mortality rate till April 24 has been highest which is 6.32 per cent, this is especially among the age group of 60 and above.
As per the data nearly 85 per cent of the number of deceased, had co-morbidities. It is referred to as the condition such as hypertension, diabetes and kidney diseases.
